Finally it has been final. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will be visiting India on April 7-10. She’ll go to the next-door neighbour on a bilateral official tour after seven years although she had been in Goa in October last year to attend the BRICS-BIMSTEC Summit and had talks with her Indian counterpart Narendra Modi. It was however not an official visit to India.
There are many issues to be discussed about and many things to decide during her official visit, But, military cooperation seems to be on top of the agenda from Indian side with India is offering a long-term defence cooperation pact against the backdrop of recently commissioning of two submarines– Nobojatra and Joyjatra– bought from China which many believe New Delhi did not like or it has a welcoming attitude towards the purchase although China is a key supplier of military hardware for Bangladesh for a long time.
Local, Indian and international media reports indicated that `leaving aside several bilateral issues, including the unresolved Teesta water-sharing treaty, India proposed a long-term comprehensive defence pact with Bangladesh that encompasses training, sale of military hardware and wide range of military to military cooperation’.
Bangladesh however is reluctant to sign an agreement on defence cooperation. Instead, sources concerned said, it wants an MOU (memorandum of understanding) `to have a beginning’ for a long-term arrangement for the future. Dhaka made it position clear to the then Indian Defence Minister Manohar Parrikkar (who took oath as Chief Minister of Goa this week) who during his end-November 2016 visit to Bangladesh `ditched the idea of greater military cooperation’ between the two next-door neighbours.
His visit, the highest level of Indian defence delegation to Dhaka in 45 years, took place two weeks after China delivered two submarines to Bangladesh. Submarines’ purchase however is not the only issue for which India was `annoyed’ and launched the idea of `greater defence pact’. Rather, the desire came following the `consistent threats of terrorism from terrorist groups, some patronised by Pakistan and its intelligence agencies, as well as the formal and informal cooperation between Dhaka and Delhi for years over combating secessionists of respective countries. India indirectly helped Bangladesh and the then Sheikh Hasina government in signing the historic CHT Peace Treaty in 1997 ending a 25-year bush-war and her government, coming back to power in 2009, reciprocated in rooting out all camps of separatists of Assam.
Moreover, the two countries came closer in the last one decade with increased trade and investment, more cultural exchanges and people-to-people contacts. Only one thing that did not happen in last one decade: Teesta water sharing treaty is yet to be signed. Otherwise, analysts said that Bangladesh and India are now in a relation the two countries had never been before. So, India now thinks time has come for more cooperation in the field of defence, specially when both the countries share common threats of terrorism.
Quoting highly placed sources, a Daily Star report said: though discussions are still going on, India is expecting to sign a comprehensive, 25-year framework agreement on bilateral defence cooperation during Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s upcoming state visit to India on April 7-10. India in its proposed agreement India also wants coordinated operations against mutually perceived threats.
India’s willingness to have a defence agreement is, experts said, also because of Bangladesh’s traditional dependency on China for military hardware under an umbrella arrangement signed during Begum Khaleda Zia’s tenure in 2002. New Delhi considers that the arrangements should be balanced by strengthening Bangladesh’s defence cooperation with India and Russia, too. As Russia is believed to getting preparations to supply eight Mig-35s or similar fighters after supplying 16 Yakolev combat trainers and Mig-29s, India thinks it should also have a stake.
As many military purchase for Bangladesh takes place under credit arrangements with the respective countries, New Delhi also reportedly offered a $500 million line of credit to Bangladesh for the purchase of military hardware, including patrol craft for the coastguards, radar, and other items for air defence.
Bangladesh is however reluctant to any military or defence cooperation pact right now for obvious reasons. Ministers and ruling party leaders already made it clear that the government will not go for any agreement that `goes against the interest of the country’. BNP and its allies however started sharpening their teeth to make it as an issue coupled with an `anti-Indian’ sentiment among many people of Bangladesh. So, it’s a remote chance that any defence cooperation between Bangladesh and India is in the offing, so any defence pact between Bangladesh and India. Rather, an MOU is likely for the time-being which might bring fruits for all in the future. Obviously the government will keep it in mind that the ruling Awami League will have to face general elections in December next year.
(The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the view or editorial policy of Channel i Online or Channel i)